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一直以来,国债规模对于经济增长是正向促进作用还是反向抑制作用都是学界争论的问题之一,同样地,政府方面也需要根据实际情况选择适合国情的国债规模。本文运用中国30个省级行政单位2001-2014年间的数据,采用面板估计模型和阈值固定效应估计模型,实证分析了中国国债和经济增长的关系。得出在目前中国国债水平较低的情况下,中国国债规模现阶段并未表现出明显的阈值,即国债规模与经济增长没有一个显著的非线性关系。进一步,线性模型的分析结果显示,我国国债规模在现阶段对经济增长未呈现出显著的抑制作用。
All along, the scale of national debt for the positive role in promoting economic growth or the role of reverse inhibition is one of the academic debate, the same, the government also need to choose according to the actual situation of the size of national debt. This paper uses the data of 30 provincial administrative units in China from 2001 to 2014, and uses panel estimation model and threshold fixed effect estimation model to empirically analyze the relationship between China’s national debt and economic growth. At the moment when the level of China’s government bonds is relatively low, the threshold of the size of China’s national debt has not shown obvious threshold at present, that is, there is not a significant nonlinear relationship between the scale of government bonds and economic growth. Further, the linear model analysis shows that the size of China’s national debt at the present stage of economic growth has not shown a significant inhibitory effect.