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近年来,天然气在中国能源结构中所占比重逐年加大,对外依存度增加,但进入“新常态”时期,在国内经济下行压力加大及国际原油价格下跌的影响下,需求放缓,天然气供应出现产能过剩倾向。在此背景下,分析天然气供需现状及未来产能具有重要意义。本文首先使用通径分析模型筛选出天然气供给和需求的核心影响因素;其次,运用ETS模型、RBF神经网络分位数回归(RBF-QRNN)模型和情景分析方法分别对我国天然气生产量、消费量和进口量进行分析和预测。最后,比较分析未来中国天然气市场的供需情况。结果表明,“十二五”末,中国天然气总供给量和总消费量分别将近178532.1百万立方米,152874.7百万立方米;2020年天然气总供给量和消费量分别将近295819.4百万立方米,228691.5百万立方米。总供给量的年均增长率高于总消费量的年均增长率。从2015年开始,中国天然气产业出现产能过剩,供过于求的“荒气”现象。
In recent years, the proportion of natural gas in China’s energy mix has been increasing year by year, with increased dependence on foreign countries. However, due to the downward pressure on the domestic economy and the drop in international crude oil prices, the demand slowed down during the “new normal” period , Natural gas supply tend to overcapacity. Against this background, it is of great significance to analyze the current status of natural gas supply and demand as well as future capacity. In this paper, the core influencing factors of natural gas supply and demand are firstly screened by using the path analysis model. Secondly, by using ETS model, RBF neural network quantile regression (RBF-QRNN) model and scenario analysis method, And import volume analysis and forecast. Finally, a comparative analysis of China’s natural gas market supply and demand situation. The results show that at the end of the 12th Five-Year Plan, the total natural gas supply and total consumption in China were nearly 178532.1 million cubic meters and 152874.7 million cubic meters, respectively. In 2020, the total natural gas supply and consumption were nearly 295,819.4 million cubic meters Meters, 228691.5 million cubic meters. The average annual growth rate of total supply is higher than the average annual growth rate of total consumption. Since 2015, China’s natural gas industry has overcapacity and “shortage” phenomenon.