未来中国经济和资本市场有三种前景:第一种,经济L型,牛市有顶部,不能实现从成长股向价值股周期股的风格切换,不能完成从政策资金分母驱动转向企业盈利分子驱动;第二种,经济U型,牛市不言顶,能够实现风格和驱动力切换;第三种,经济落入中等收入陷阱,梦醒时分,重回熊市。概率3:5:2。5000点之后,我们拟推演中国经济和资本市场的的演变逻辑和未来趋势。如果要推演未来,必须理清过去这段时间的主要逻辑和驱动力,以及它们的演进方向。 In the future, there are three kinds of prospects for China’s economy and capital market: the first one is that the economy is L-shaped with the top of the bull market, the style switch from growth stocks to the stock market of value stocks can not be achieved, and policy incentives can not be shifted from denominator of policy funds to profit-driven enterprises. Two kinds of economic U-shaped, the bull market is unspeakable, to achieve the switch between style and driving force; third, the economy fell into the middle income trap, wake up, return to the bear market. With a probability of 3: 5: 2.5000, we intend to deduce the evolutionary logic and future trends of China’s economy and capital markets. If we want to deduce the future, we must sort out the main logic and driving forces of the past period and their evolutionary directions.