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针对中国计划并行敷设的某油气管道进行失效概率分析,以欧洲石油公司CONCAWE针对原油管道的失效统计结果和EGIG发布的欧洲天然气管道事故数据为基础失效概率数据,对其进行修正和调整,确定并行敷设的原油与天然气管道的失效概率修正值。根据天然气管道失效引起原油管道失效的事件树及概率,得到原油管道并行敷设时的失效概率为6.66×10-5km/a,比单独敷设时的失效概率增大不超过0.9%。结合管道失效后果,计算管道并行敷设带来的附加风险,将计算风险与可接受风险进行对比,指出两条管道并行敷设是可行的。(表3,图1,参6)
According to the probability of failure of an oil and gas pipeline laid out by China in parallel plan, the failure probability data of CONCAWE for crude oil pipeline and the data of natural gas pipeline accident in Europe released by EGIG were revised and adjusted to determine the parallelism Revised Probability of Failure of Laying Crude Oil and Natural Gas Pipelines. According to the event tree and the probability of pipeline failure caused by the failure of natural gas pipeline, the probability of failure in parallel laying of crude oil pipeline is 6.66 × 10-5km / a, which is no more than 0.9% higher than that in single laying. Combined with the consequence of pipe failure, the additional risk brought by the parallel pipe laying is calculated, and the calculated risk is compared with the acceptable risk. It is pointed out that it is feasible to lay the two pipelines in parallel. (Table 3, Figure 1, reference 6)