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目的估计2010—2015年北京市顺义区流行性感冒(流感)相关超额死亡情况。方法收集北京市顺义区2010—2015年死因监测数据和流感病原学监测数据,分年龄组拟合负二项回归模型,估计流感相关超额死亡。结果 2010—2011至2014—2015年度,北京市顺义区年均观察死亡率为643.9/10万(范围:594.8~689.1/10万),其中呼吸及循环系统、流感及肺炎疾病死亡分别占全死因的65.46%和1.95%。以全死因、呼吸及循环系统疾病、流感及肺炎疾病估计顺义区平均每年度超额死亡率为分别为8.8/10万(95%CI:3.4~15.1/10万)、7.3/10万(95%CI:2.3~13.4/10万)和0.5/10万(95%CI:0.2~1.0/10万)。≥65岁年龄组人群年均超额死亡率高于全年龄组。A(H3N2)亚型流感病原学监测阳性率每升高1%,可导致流感及肺炎疾病、呼吸及循环系统疾病、全死因死亡分别增加0.99%(95%CI:0.06~1.95)、0.32%(95%CI:0.01~0.64)和0.31%(95%CI:0.01~0.61);A(H1N1)pdm09亚型流感病原学监测阳性率每升高1%,可导致呼吸及循环系统疾病、全死因死亡分别增加0.77%(95%CI:0.17~1.37)和0.72%(95%CI:0.07~1.39)。结论北京市顺义区流感流行每年度可造成一定量的超额死亡数,尤其是对于≥65岁年龄组,下一步有必要对顺义区流感疾病负担开展全面系统的评估。
Objective To estimate the excess mortality related to influenza (influenza) in Shunyi District of Beijing from 2010 to 2015. Methods The surveillance data of death causes and influenza etiology from 2010 to 2015 in Shunyi District of Beijing were collected. Negative binomial regression models were fitted by age group to estimate the excess flu-related deaths. Results The annual average observed mortality in Shunyi District of Beijing from 2010-2011 to 2014-2015 was 643.9 / 100 000 (range: 594.8-689.1 / 100000). Respiratory, circulatory, influenza and pneumonia deaths accounted for all causes of death Of 65.46% and 1.95%. The annual average excess mortality in Shunyi District was estimated at 8.8 / 100,000 (95% CI: 3.4-15.1 / 100,000) and 7.3 / 100,000 (95% CI) respectively for all causes of death, respiratory and circulatory diseases, and influenza and pneumonia. CI: 2.3 to 13.4 / 100,000) and 0.5 / 100,000 (95% CI: 0.2 to 1.0 / 100,000). The average annual excess mortality rate in the population of ≥65 years old is higher than that of the whole age group. A 1% increase in the positive rate of influenza A (H3N2) subtype influenza A surveillance led to an increase of 0.99% (95% CI: 0.06 to 1.95) and 0.32% for all-cause death due to influenza and pneumonia, respiratory and circulatory diseases, (95% CI: 0.01-0.64) and 0.31% (95% CI: 0.01-0.61). A 1% increase in the positive rate of influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 subtype influenza may lead to respiratory and circulatory diseases. The cause of death increased by 0.77% (95% CI: 0.17-1.37) and 0.72% (95% CI: 0.07-1.39), respectively. Conclusion The annual flu prevalence in Shunyi District of Beijing can cause a certain amount of excess deaths. Especially for the age group of ≥65, it is necessary to conduct a comprehensive and systematic assessment of the flu burden in Shunyi District.