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本文是以程恩富双约束假设为前提,以马克思两大部类交换学说为基础,采用因果分析法建立了一个两大部类不变资本增长率的非均衡动力模型。本文分析了在自然资源和需求约束下两大部类不变资本的动态轨迹。结果显示,第一部类自然资源再生能力低下将导致两大部类不变资本增长迟缓,甚至增长停滞。两大部类不变资本增长率对该系数十分敏感。第二部类资源再生能力的提供也会引起两大部类不变资本增长率的提高,但是提高的幅度不如第一部类再生系数。需求约束也会产生与资源再生能力相似的影响。如果双约束很紧,那么经济增长水平会停留在较低的状态;如果双约束时松时紧,则会出现经济的周期性运行,这一周期运行可能是稳定的,也可能不稳定的。如果是不稳定的,则经济系统可能会出现混沌现象。只有资源再生能力足够强、过剩供给足够小,两大部类不变资本才能够持续地增长。
This article is based on the assumption that Cheng Enfu double constraints, based on Marx’s two major types of exchange theory, using causal analysis method to establish a non-equilibrium dynamic model of two types of constant capital growth rate. This paper analyzes the dynamic trajectories of two major types of constant capital under the constraints of natural resources and demand. The results show that the low natural resource regeneration capacity of the first category will result in the sluggish growth of the two major types of constant capital growth or even the growth stagnation. The two major categories of constant capital growth are very sensitive to this factor. The provision of renewable resources of the second category will also lead to the increase of the growth rates of the two major categories of fixed capital but will not be as much as the first category of renewables. Demand constraints also have a similar impact on resource regeneration. If the dual constraints are tight, the level of economic growth will stay at a low level. If the dual constraints are tight, economic cyclical operations will occur. The cycle may or may not be stable. If it is not stable, the economic system may show chaos. Only when the resource regeneration capacity is strong enough and the surplus supply is small enough will the two major types of constant capital continue to grow.