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在城市路网中,路段通行能力退化和交通需求随机波动都会增加路网的不确定性。为研究路网中单个区域的交通可靠性问题,通过采用区域备用能力作为综合性能指标,建立了度量区域交通服务水平的双层规划模型。基于此提出了区域通行能力和出行时间综合可靠度的概念及其Monte Carlo仿真算法。最后通过一个数值算例对模型和仿真算法进行验证,仿真结果说明了区域通行能力、服务水平与可靠性之间的相互替代关系。
In the urban road network, the deteriorating road capacity and random fluctuations in traffic demand will increase the uncertainty of the road network. In order to study the traffic reliability of a single area in the road network, a bi-level programming model is established to measure the level of traffic service in the area by using regional reserve capacity as a comprehensive performance index. Based on this, the concept of comprehensive reliability of regional traffic capacity and travel time and its Monte Carlo simulation algorithm are proposed. Finally, a numerical example is used to verify the model and the simulation algorithm. The simulation results show the mutual substitution of regional capacity, service level and reliability.