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通过考察1992—2011年间中国对12个拉丁美洲贸易伙伴国的农产品进出口数据,基于引力模型的面板数据计量方法,揭示了影响中拉农产品进出口贸易的主要因素,并测算了中拉农产品进出口贸易潜力。研究发现,经济规模相对差异、农产品贸易品种及是否签订自由贸易协定对中拉农产品贸易额具有重要影响;中拉农产品进出口具有不同的潜力空间,总体而言中国向拉丁美洲国家农产品出口更具潜力,以此提出应不断加大扶持农业生产力度,积极推进中拉贸易自由化进程,积极开拓农产品贸易新领域以及充分认识中国与拉丁美洲之间的农产品贸易关系等对策建议。
Through examining the import and export data of agricultural products from China to 12 Latin American trading partners between 1992 and 2011, the panel data measurement method based on the gravitation model reveals the main factors that affect the import and export trade of Chinese and Latin American agricultural products, Export trade potential. The study found that the relative differences in economic size, varieties of agricultural products trade and the signing of free trade agreements have an important impact on the trade volume of China-Latin America agricultural products. The import and export of agricultural products of Latin American and Latin American countries have different potential spaces. Generally, China exports more agricultural products to Latin American countries Therefore, it is suggested that China should continue to increase agricultural production, actively promote the process of trade liberalization between China and Latin America, actively explore new areas of agricultural trade, and fully understand the countermeasures and suggestions on the trade relations between China and Latin America.