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水温是影响水质的重要因素之一,为了更好地预测水温的变化趋势,为水质管理及渔业生产提供科学依据,本文以太湖梅梁湾湖区为例,选取梅梁湾1995年1月-2005年12月的水温数据,构建季节性时间序列模型,并以2006年的水温数据进行验证,结果显示了模型拟合效果较好,预测值与实测值相对误差较小,表明季节性时间序列在水温预测方面有较好的应用性。
Water temperature is one of the important factors affecting water quality. In order to better forecast the trend of water temperature and provide a scientific basis for water quality management and fishery production, this paper takes Meiliang Bay Lake in Taihu Lake as an example and selects Meiliang Bay from January 1995 to 2005 The results of the model show that the model fitting effect is better and the relative error between the predicted value and the measured value is smaller, indicating that the seasonal time series in the Water temperature prediction has good applicability.