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According to the Report on the Work of the Government delivered on March 5， China’s gross domestic product （GDP）， consumer price index （CPI） and broad money supply （M2） are expected to increase by 7.5 percent， 3.5 percent and 13 percent respectively； fiscal deficit is pegged at 2 percent of GDP. In 2012， the indicators were 7.5 percent， 4 percent， 14 percent and 1.5 percent respectively.
GDP growth will fall between 6 percent and 8 percent as mentioned in Hu Jintao’s report at the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China， with an emphasis on quality and efficient growth rather than rapid growth.
China will see greater economic momentum in 2013. Since the housing market continues to soar， GDP growth in the first several months of 2013 is likely to surpass 8 percent. Taking the political-economic cycle into account， a new round of investment boom by local governments will greatly boost the possibility that annual GDP growth would return to more than 8 percent in 2013.
Therefore， the new generation of Chinese leaders not only is required to maintain rapid economic growth， but also faces up to existing issues， like real estate bubbles， risks of shadow banking and overheated investment. Given external uncertainties， such as America’s slow recovery， a deteriorating eurozone sovereign debt crisis and a depreciating yen， it won’t be easy.
In 2013， CPI will be controlled below 3.5 percent， which may have something to do with the low CPI growth registered in 2012. Due to low price levels in a fragile global economy， China may reach its target with no difficulty. But the difference in CPI calculation between China and the developed world complicated with troublesome realities make inflationary pressures nonignorable. When pork prices begin to rebound， China would face great pressures from CPI rises. In addition， the investment boom brought by China’s leadership transition may be interwoven with the upward pressures. In this sense， the government should keep a watchful eye on CPI rises.
The growth target for M2 in 2013 is 1 percentage point lower than the previous year. Some predict that the People’s Bank of China may tighten monetary policies. In fact， it is not the case. The change by the central bank is out of three concerns.
First， both money and credit growth should be controlled at an appropriate level. Since the domestic real estate market continues to boom， quantitative easing may push housing prices to a new high. Second， loosening monetary policies may amplify risks rising from shadow banking， real estate bubbles and the financing activities of local governments. Third， with constant financial innovation in the domestic market， the proportion of bank credit against social financing has been descending， so has the significance of monetary policy control. Under such circumstances， the decline of M2 may last for the next few years. Reduced M2 growth will only have a limited impact on market liquidity.
Of course， monetary policy in 2013 will generally be stable and moderately tight.
The fiscal deficit target is higher than that in 2012， indicating fiscal policy will be more proactive this year. First， the government intends to increase spending in social security， healthcare and low-income housing to improve people’s livelihood. Second， a propitious environment needs to be created for local governments to solve their debt woes. If spending is partially shifted from local governments to the Central Government， financial risks deriving from local financing platforms will be gradually reduced. Besides， it will also propel the economic growth of less developed areas.
In short， economic targets are designed to lead China’s economic development in a new direction， not through radical policy adjustments or reforms， but in a manner that lays a solid foundation for stable and sustainable economic growth in the future.
GDP growth will fall between 6 percent and 8 percent as mentioned in Hu Jintao’s report at the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China， with an emphasis on quality and efficient growth rather than rapid growth.
China will see greater economic momentum in 2013. Since the housing market continues to soar， GDP growth in the first several months of 2013 is likely to surpass 8 percent. Taking the political-economic cycle into account， a new round of investment boom by local governments will greatly boost the possibility that annual GDP growth would return to more than 8 percent in 2013.
Therefore， the new generation of Chinese leaders not only is required to maintain rapid economic growth， but also faces up to existing issues， like real estate bubbles， risks of shadow banking and overheated investment. Given external uncertainties， such as America’s slow recovery， a deteriorating eurozone sovereign debt crisis and a depreciating yen， it won’t be easy.
In 2013， CPI will be controlled below 3.5 percent， which may have something to do with the low CPI growth registered in 2012. Due to low price levels in a fragile global economy， China may reach its target with no difficulty. But the difference in CPI calculation between China and the developed world complicated with troublesome realities make inflationary pressures nonignorable. When pork prices begin to rebound， China would face great pressures from CPI rises. In addition， the investment boom brought by China’s leadership transition may be interwoven with the upward pressures. In this sense， the government should keep a watchful eye on CPI rises.
The growth target for M2 in 2013 is 1 percentage point lower than the previous year. Some predict that the People’s Bank of China may tighten monetary policies. In fact， it is not the case. The change by the central bank is out of three concerns.
First， both money and credit growth should be controlled at an appropriate level. Since the domestic real estate market continues to boom， quantitative easing may push housing prices to a new high. Second， loosening monetary policies may amplify risks rising from shadow banking， real estate bubbles and the financing activities of local governments. Third， with constant financial innovation in the domestic market， the proportion of bank credit against social financing has been descending， so has the significance of monetary policy control. Under such circumstances， the decline of M2 may last for the next few years. Reduced M2 growth will only have a limited impact on market liquidity.
Of course， monetary policy in 2013 will generally be stable and moderately tight.
The fiscal deficit target is higher than that in 2012， indicating fiscal policy will be more proactive this year. First， the government intends to increase spending in social security， healthcare and low-income housing to improve people’s livelihood. Second， a propitious environment needs to be created for local governments to solve their debt woes. If spending is partially shifted from local governments to the Central Government， financial risks deriving from local financing platforms will be gradually reduced. Besides， it will also propel the economic growth of less developed areas.
In short， economic targets are designed to lead China’s economic development in a new direction， not through radical policy adjustments or reforms， but in a manner that lays a solid foundation for stable and sustainable economic growth in the future.