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由于在工业生产中使用危险化学品会引起各种工业事故的发生,为了减小事故风险,降低由此产生的经济损失,必须将安全问题考虑在内,对工厂进行合理布局。采用蒙特卡罗模拟技术,研究某生产设施发生有毒气体泄漏的场景下,气象条件的不确定性对工厂布局的影响。以风向、风速及大气稳定性作为随机变量,通过扩散模型、概率函数和蒙特卡罗模拟得到中毒死亡概率。将上述随机方法应用在天津某个处于规划布局阶段的工厂内,以氨气泄漏为例,根据该地区常年风向分布及所得风险等值线图对工厂设施布局提出建议。案例分析表明:该工厂需要进行重新布局,应将受体设施布置在风险较小、风频较小的方位上;同时该随机方法能够为工厂布局提供决策支持。
As the use of hazardous chemicals in industrial production can cause various industrial accidents, in order to reduce the risk of accidents and reduce the economic losses caused by them, safety issues must be taken into account and the factories should be rationally arranged. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is used to study the influence of the uncertainty of meteorological conditions on the plant layout under the scenario of toxic gas leakage at a production facility. Taking wind direction, wind speed and atmospheric stability as random variables, the probability of poisoning death was obtained by diffusion model, probability function and Monte Carlo simulation. The above stochastic method is applied to a factory located in the planning and layout stage in Tianjin. Taking the ammonia gas leakage as an example, the layout of factory facilities is proposed according to the annual wind direction distribution and the obtained risk contour map. Case studies show that the plant needs to be re-routed, receiver facilities should be placed in a less risky, less windy location, and the stochastic approach can provide decision support for the plant layout.