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针对现代危险品运输安全监控问题,以运输费用、事故风险、灾害致灾、补救能力为运输安全评估的关键因素,建立安全分析的评估指标体系,提出一种基于模糊Petri网的危险品运输安全评估模型。首先应用转换规则给出评估指标体系的模糊Petri网表示和在Petri网模型的基础上的模糊推理算法,其次结合层次分析法(AHP),采取定性与定量分析相结合的方法进行安全评价;最后给出基于ArcGIS的评估模型实现方法,并应用于危险品运输安全监控系统的开发。模糊Petri网的数学特性及易于实现的特性,使得安全评估模型的建立,有助于实现运输安全评估策略的形式化、定量化和动态决策,而基于安全评估模型的危险品运输车辆监控系统的成功开发,进一步表明评估模型、推理算法和实现方法是合理可行的。
Aiming at the problem of transportation safety monitoring in modern dangerous goods transportation, this paper establishes the evaluation index system of safety analysis based on transportation cost, accident risk, disaster disaster recovery and remedial ability as the key factors of transportation safety assessment, and puts forward a method based on fuzzy Petri net to transport dangerous goods Evaluation model. Firstly, the fuzzy Petri net representation of the evaluation index system and the fuzzy inference algorithm based on the Petri net model are given by using the transformation rules. Secondly, with the combination of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and qualitative and quantitative analysis, the safety assessment is carried out. Finally, The implementation method of the assessment model based on ArcGIS is given and applied to the development of the transportation safety monitoring system of dangerous goods. The mathematical properties of Fuzzy Petri nets and its easy-to-implement properties make it possible to formalize, quantify and make dynamic decision-making in the assessment of transport safety, while the establishment of safety assessment model can help realize the decision- Successful development further demonstrates that it is reasonable and feasible to evaluate models, reasoning algorithms and implementation methods.