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2004年上半年的钯市场为基金所主宰,价格出人意料地突破了300美元/盎司阻力线,收在18个月的高点。基本面虽然没有实质性的支撑,但未来需求的增长潜力大大鼓励了基金的热情。预计下半年的投机活力将有所减弱,基金有撤出商品市场的迹象。但价格处于历史低点、中长期需求看好的钯市场仍有吸引力,因此下半年的钯价仍将在投机的掌控之中。预计价格将在200美元/盎司处有强支撑,上行强阻在310~330美元/盎司区间;如果突破该价位,下一个阻力位将在370美元/盎司附近。
The palladium market for the first half of 2004 was dominated by the fund, which unexpectedly broke the 300-USdollars ounce line and closed at an 18-month high. Although there is no fundamental support for the fundamentals, the potential for future growth in demand has greatly encouraged the fund’s enthusiasm. The speculative activity is expected to weaken in the second half of the year, with the fund withdrawing from the commodity markets. However, the price is at a record low and the palladium market with medium and long-term demand is still attractive. Therefore, the palladium price in the second half will still be under speculative control. Expected prices will be strong support at 200 US dollars / ounce Department, up strong resistance at 310 ~ 330 US dollars / ounce interval; if the price break, the next resistance will be around 370 US dollars / ounce.