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根据嘉陵江流域内12个气象站点1956~2012年的逐日气象资料,分别采用改进前后的平流干旱模型对嘉陵江三个子流域的实际蒸散发进行模拟,提出了一种基于气候变化和土地利用变化的实际蒸散发(Ea)贡献率计算方法。结果表明,与水量平衡法的估算结果相比,改进后模型对Ea的估算精度高于原始模型,且修正后模型参数α与土地利用类型具有相关性;三个子流域的年际实际蒸散发变化主要受下垫面因素变化的影响,是气候变化对其影响的2~5倍。此外,气候变化导致涪江流域的Ea在整个评估期内减少,另外两个子流域的Ea增加;下垫面变化导致涪江和嘉陵江子流域Ea减小,渠江Ea增加。
Based on the daily meteorological data of 12 meteorological stations in Jialing River Basin from 1956 to 2012, the simulated evapotranspiration of the three sub-basins in the Jialing River was simulated using the advegrant arid and arid before and after the improvement, respectively. Based on the actual climate change and land use change Evapotranspiration (Ea) contribution rate calculation method. The results show that the estimated accuracy of Ea is higher than that of the original model, and the corrected model parameters α are correlated with the types of land use. Compared with the estimation results of the water balance method, the estimated evapotranspiration of the three sub-basins Mainly affected by changes in the underlying surface factor is the impact of climate change 2 to 5 times. In addition, the Ea of Fujiang River Basin decreased due to climate change during the assessment period, while the Ea of the other two sub-river basins increased. The change of underlying surface caused the Ea of Fujiang River and Jialing River sub-catchments to decrease and Ea of Qujiang River increase.