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本文将时变国外产出缺口、进口价格通胀等因素引入菲利普斯曲线模型,采用G18(世界主要经济体,20国集团中18个国家)1993—2012年的季度面板数据对模型进行验证。结果表明,从整体上看,2000年之前全球化因素对于国内通货膨胀的影响并不显著;2000年之后,全球化因素对于国内通货膨胀的影响增强并变为显著正向。对新兴市场而言,进入21世纪其国内产出日益依赖国外负向产出缺口来消化,从而削弱了其内部经济过热拉动通胀的可能性;而对于工业化国家而言,其国内产出与价格联动机制遭削弱,并且受益于低廉进口产品而享受了长期低通胀。这种新的通胀作用机制不仅要求各国央行在应对产出波动与治理通货膨胀时应更重视国际市场供需状况,同时也需各国政府更为精准地针对不同作用渠道、各国不同情况有侧重地应对。
This paper introduces the time-varying foreign output gap, import price inflation and other factors into the Phillips curve model, and validates the model with quarter panel data from 1993 to 2012 in G18 (the world’s major economies and 18 countries in the G-20). The results show that on the whole, the impact of globalization on domestic inflation was insignificant before 2000; after 2000, the impact of globalization on domestic inflation increased and became significantly positive. For emerging markets, their domestic output in the 21st century is increasingly relying on foreign negative output shortfalls to be digested, thus undermining the possibility that overheating will drive inflation in its internal economy. For industrialized countries, their domestic output and prices Linkages have been weakened and enjoyed long-term, low inflation thanks to cheaper imports. This new mechanism of inflation not only requires central banks of all countries to pay more attention to supply and demand in the international market in coping with output fluctuations and inflation control, but also requires governments of all countries to more precisely target different channels of action and respond differently to different situations in different countries .