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最坏的情形可能会在2009年发生。在经济危机目前还看不见任何回暖迹象的情况下,由于外需大幅减少、内需拉动有限,来自国家统计局的最新统计显示,2008年1至11月份,全国规模以上工业企业实现利润同比增长4.9%,增速比1至8月份回落14.5个百分点。前11个月的数据反映了我国的经济增速快速回落的现实,企业的盈利状况日趋恶化。《中国企业家》对金融、地产、钢铁、民航、互联网等热门行业进行了简单的梳理和预测,结论是,2008年炼狱式的生存考验会在2009年持续。而相应地,行业整合机会也将浮现。
The worst case scenario may happen in 2009. In the economic crisis, there is still no sign of any signs of recovery. Due to the drastic reduction in external demand and the limited domestic demand, the latest statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that from January to November 2008, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 4.9% Growth rate down from January to August 14.5 percentage points. The first 11 months of data reflect the fact that our country’s economic growth has rapidly declined. The profitability of enterprises has deteriorated day by day. The “Chinese Entrepreneurs” briefly reviewed and forecast the hot sectors such as finance, real estate, steel, civil aviation and the Internet. The conclusion is that the purifying trial of 2008 will continue in 2009. And accordingly, opportunities for industry consolidation will also emerge.