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为有效预防飞行事故的发生,针对飞行事故率具有随机波动性和趋势性的特点,采用模糊均生函数(FMGF)和最优子集回归(OSR)建立飞行事故率预测模型。该方法把FMGF延拓序列作为预测因子加入OSR方程,将FMGF分析和因子筛选相结合作OSR,进而对飞行事故率进行预测。通过对美国空军1988—2004年的飞行事故率进行拟合预测,结果表明:将FMGF模型和OSR模型有机结合,能够有效刻画飞行事故率的随机波动特性,并且其预测结果的相对误差也较小。
In order to effectively prevent the occurrence of a flying accident, aiming at the random fluctuation and trend of the flight accident rate, the flight accident rate prediction model is established by the fuzzy mean function (FMGF) and the optimal subset regression (OSR). The method adds the FMGF extension sequence as a predictor to the OSR equation, combines the FMGF analysis and factor screening as an OSR, and then predicts the flight accident rate. The results show that the combination of FMGF model and OSR model can effectively characterize the stochastic volatility of flight accident rate and the relative error of the prediction results is also small .