论文部分内容阅读
番荔枝实蝇Ceratitis anonae(Graham)是一种重要的外来入侵性检疫害虫。在广东口岸,其幼虫连续从入境旅客所携带的水果中被检出。目前关于番荔枝实蝇潜在适生性分布的研究进行得很少,但对于我国的生物生态安全却有重要意义。本研究中,我们使用3种生态位模型(ENFA模型,马氏典型性模型和Maxent模型)对番荔枝实蝇在中国以及全球范围内的潜在适生性分布区域进行了预测分析。结果显示:Maxent模型拥有最好的预测精确度,马氏典型性模型次之,而ENFA模型的预测精确度最差;Maxent模型和马氏典型性模型的预测精确度无显著性差异;根据Maxent模型的预测结果,番荔枝实蝇在中国的潜在适生区主要是广西、广东、海南以及云南的少部分地区。分析结果显示,番荔枝实蝇从境外传入中国南部地区并最终在上述地区定殖的风险可能性存在,但风险较小。另外,折刀法(Jackknife)分析显示,6种环境因子,例如地面霜冻频率、年平均降雨量、十月降雨量、四月降雨量、年最低温度以及蒸气压,对于番荔枝实蝇在全球和局部地区的分布模式有显著的影响。
Ceratitis anonae (Graham) is an important invasive invasive quarantine pest. In Guangdong, larvae were continuously detected from fruits carried by inbound travelers. At present, there are few researches on the potential fitness distribution of fruit flies, but it is of great significance to the bio-ecological security in our country. In this study, we used three kinds of niche models (ENFA model, Markov model and Maxent model) to predict the potential distribution of oriental fruit flies in China and around the world. The results show that: Maxent model has the best prediction accuracy, the second is the Markov model, while the ENFA model has the worst prediction accuracy; Maxent model and Markov model have no significant difference in prediction accuracy; According to Maxent According to the model predictions, the potential suitable areas for the fruit fly in China are mainly Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan and a small part of Yunnan. The analysis showed that there is a possibility of risk of the oriental fruit fly introduced into southern China from the outside and eventually colonized in the above areas, but the risk is small. In addition, Jackknife analysis showed that six environmental factors, such as ground frost frequency, annual average rainfall, October rainfall, April rainfall, annual minimum temperature and vapor pressure, And local distribution patterns have a significant impact.