国家财政的大力支持是我国新型农村社会养老保险在短期内能够快速顺利推行的关键,然而,国家财政能否可持续支持又是其能否长期持续有效运转的关键。本文结合实际,在一系列假设的基础上,通过养老金支出模型的构建,在对2012—2049年新农保养老金支出预测分析的基础上,着重探讨国家财政对新农保的支持力度、财政负担能力,并进一步讨论国家财政支持的可持续性问题。研究结果表明,在现行新农保政策及其缴费水平下,财政补助支出在养老金总支出中的比重相对较高,财政责任程度相对较大,但是国家财政在总量上有能力且能够持续负担对新农保的各项资金补助,未来决定新农保中国家财政责任可持续支持的重点在于积极应对和合理解决地方财政责任的不平衡问题、用制度确保财政资金的持续有效供给,以及增强个人的缴费贡献以分担国家财政责任风险等方面。 The strong support of state finance is the key to the rapid and smooth implementation of the new-type rural social endowment insurance in our country in the short term. However, whether the state finance can sustainably support it or not is the key to its continuous and effective operation in the long run. On the basis of a series of assumptions, based on a series of assumptions, based on the construction of the pension expenditure model, this paper, on the basis of predicting and analyzing the new rural pension insurance expenditure in 2012-2049, focuses on the state financial support for new rural insurance, Financial affordability and further discuss the sustainability of state financial support. The results show that under the current new rural social security policy and its contribution level, the proportion of financial aid expenditure in the total pension expenditure is relatively high and the degree of financial responsibility is relatively large. However, the state finance has the capacity and sustainability in total amount In the future, the key to sustainable financial support for new state-owned agricultural subsidies lies in coping with and properly solving the imbalance of local fiscal responsibilities, ensuring a system of continuous and effective supply of fiscal funds, and Enhance contribution contribution of individuals to share national financial responsibility risks and so on.