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中国经济从改革开放以来已经持续了20多年的高速增长,这种高增长是伴随着高投资和高能耗而产生的,但是高投资、高能耗的增长是有限的,中国未来经济能否继续高速增长?这是我国经济学界普遍关注的一个问题。本文基于新古典增长理论,应用计量分析的方法,把我国1978年至2006年的数据进行分析,并得出了中国经济增长对资本和技术进步的倚赖很大,但是随着增长方式的转变,我国经济增长的前景依然比较乐观的结论。
Since the reform and opening up, the Chinese economy has enjoyed rapid growth for more than 20 years. This high growth is accompanied by high investment and high energy consumption. However, the growth of high investment and high energy consumption is limited. Can China’s economy continue its rapid growth? Growth? This is a common concern in our economics circle. Based on the neoclassical growth theory and the method of econometrics, this paper analyzes the data of China from 1978 to 2006 and concludes that the economic growth in China depends heavily on the progress of capital and technology. However, as the mode of growth changes, The outlook for our economic growth is still more optimistic.