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投资要点:1、三季度畜禽价格即将上涨,直接催化股价。2、反转尘埃落定,存栏底部推动价格上涨的逻辑将兑现。当前猪粮比在5.25左右,从季节性规律看,历年三季度均高于目前水平。9月底中秋—国庆双节需求拉动,是一年中需求最好的时间段之一。综合历史经验,我们预计2014年三季度猪价呈上涨趋势。与此同时,生猪存栏绝对数量连续多月处于历史低位,而需求方面仍然稳定增长,从10年至13年,国内猪肉消费量已经累计增长9.7%左右,因此我们判断未来半年
Investment points: 1, the third quarter of livestock prices going up, a direct catalyst for stock prices. 2, reverse the dust settles, the bottom of the bar to promote the logic of price increases will be honored. The current ratio of pig food around 5.25, from a seasonal perspective, the third quarter of all previous years are higher than the current level. Mid-Autumn Festival by the end of September - National Day double-demand pull, demand is one of the best time of the year. Based on historical experience, we expect the pork price to go up in the third quarter of 2014. In the meantime, the absolute number of live pigs kept at historic lows for many months in a row, while the demand is still steadily increasing. From 10 to 13 years, the domestic consumption of pork has increased by a staggering 9.7%, so we judge the next six months