针对长江中游防洪决策过程，筛选出几个主要的风险因子。考虑暴雨洪水历史资料，短期洪水位预报以及中长期雨洪预报三种不同信息条件，建立防洪决策风险分析模型，针对长江三峡至螺山河段防洪系统，是否启用分蓄洪区的各种防洪决策方案，给出决策风险的定量描述 For the flood control decision-making process in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, several major risk factors are screened out. Considering flood storm historical data, short-term flood forecast and mid-long term flood forecasting, this paper establishes risk analysis model of flood control decision-making, and plans flood control system for flood control system of Three Gorges to Luosha River. , Gives a quantitative description of the risk of decision-making