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目的探讨感染性腹泻高发月份的发病与前一年气象因素的相关性,建立感染性腹泻高发月份发病的回归预测模型。方法由北京市疾病预防控制中心提供1990年至2004年记录存档的感染性腹泻病例的发病年份、月份资料,共1223323例。由北京市观象台提供1990年至2004年的气象因素资料,包括每日的平均气温、平均相对湿度、平均水汽压、平均降雨量、平均风速5项气象指标。分析气象因素与下一年感染性腹泻高发月份病例数的相关性。结果感染性腹泻高发月份的病例数与前一年三之气的风速和降水量相关性具有统计学意义(P<0.05),其中与风速呈负相关,与降水量呈正相关。结论通过前一年三之气的风速,可以预测当年感染性腹泻高发月份的病例数;祛风除湿法可用于感染性腹泻的预防和治疗之中。
Objective To investigate the correlation between the incidence of infectious diarrhea in the high incidence month and the previous year meteorological factors and to establish a regression prediction model for the incidence of infectious diarrhea in the high incidence month. Methods Beijing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention provided records of the year and month of infectious diarrhea recorded from 1990 to 2004 with a total of 1223323 cases. Beijing Observatory provided meteorological data from 1990 to 2004, including the daily average temperature, average relative humidity, average vapor pressure, average rainfall and average wind speed of 5 meteorological indicators. Analyze the correlation between meteorological factors and the number of cases of infectious diarrhea in the next year. Results The number of cases with infectious diarrhea in high incidence month was significantly correlated with the wind speed and precipitation in the previous year (P <0.05), and was negatively correlated with wind speed and positively correlated with precipitation. Conclusions The wind speed of the three-year-old gas of the previous year can predict the number of cases of infectious diarrhea in those high-incidence months. Expelling wind and dampness can be used in the prevention and treatment of infectious diarrhea.