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目的应用灰色模型预测辽阳市风疹发病流行趋势,为风疹防治提供科学依据。方法采用《中国疾病预防控制信息系统》中辽阳市2007-2012年风疹发病资料进行风疹发病率研究,利用GM(1,1)模型外推预测2013年和2014年风疹发病率趋势。结果 2007-2012年辽阳市风疹发病呈下降趋势,2013年和2014年风疹发病估计值分别为11.834 9/10万和9.707 1/10万,预测精度为优。结论灰色模型可应用于辽阳市风疹发病率趋势预测,拟合效果理想。
Objective To predict the epidemic trend of rubella in Liaoyang by gray model and provide a scientific basis for the prevention and treatment of rubella. Methods To study the incidence of rubella in 2007-2009 in Liaoyang city of China, and to extrapolate the trend of rubella incidence in 2013 and 2014 with GM (1,1) model. Results The incidence of rubella in Liaoyang was declining from 2007 to 2012. The incidence of rubella in 2013 and 2014 were estimated at 11.834 9/100000 and 9.707 1/100 respectively. The prediction accuracy was excellent. Conclusion Gray model can be applied to predict the incidence of rubella in Liaoyang, and the fitting result is satisfactory.