论文部分内容阅读
缩小城乡收入差距、扩大农村消费是城镇化的重要目标。但在过去30多年中,中国出现了城镇化快速发展和城乡居民消费差距扩大并存的现象。对此,本文在理论分析城镇化对城乡居民消费影响机理的基础上,运用2002-2015年中国省际面板数据,通过建立PVAR模型实证检验城镇化发展对城乡消费增长的影响,发现中国“城市偏向”的城镇化发展模式通过提升城市居民收入水平、强化农村居民预防性储蓄动机以及引致农业转移人口家庭福利损失等途径抑制了城乡消费的同步增长。基于PSTR模型的进一步研究表明,城镇化对城乡消费水平的影响效果随着收入的增加呈现出较为平坦的“S”型特征,城市和农村地区进入影响显著区制的收入“门限”分别为7778元和5367元,但城市地区达到“门限”值的时间远远早于农村地区。
Narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas, expanding rural consumption is an important goal of urbanization. However, over the past three decades, China has witnessed the rapid development of urbanization and the widening gap between urban and rural residents. In this paper, based on the theoretical analysis of the impact of urbanization on urban and rural residents consumption, using the panel data of China from 2002 to 2015 and the empirical PVAR model to test the impact of urbanization on urban and rural consumption growth, we find that China Urbanization “mode of urbanization inhibits the simultaneous growth of urban and rural consumption by raising the income level of urban residents, strengthening the precautionary saving motive of rural residents and causing the loss of family welfare of agricultural population. Further studies based on the PSTR model show that the effect of urbanization on urban and rural consumption levels shows a relatively flat ”S “ type with the increase of income, and that urban and rural areas have access to significant ”Were 7,778 yuan and 5,367 yuan respectively, but urban areas reached the“ threshold ”value far earlier than in rural areas.