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本文建立了一个包含两国经济的新凯恩斯DSGE模型,使用贝叶斯方法对参数进行估计,继而在不同金融开放度条件下对比了我国货币政策等冲击对经济变量造成的影响差异,发现如下特征:1模型具有稳健性,对研究我国经济波动具有适应性;2通过方差分解发现,大多数冲击在金融中度开放时对我国经济的影响最大,国外通货膨胀冲击随着开放度的提高影响增加,而我国货币政策冲击则相反;3通过脉冲响应分析发现,从中期看开放度较小时产出对货币政策冲击反应更大,而中度以及高度开放时政策路径几乎无差异,通货膨胀对开放度变化反应不显著;4通过冲击影响对比发现,产出及通货膨胀均对风险溢价冲击、国外通货膨胀冲击及国外利率冲击的反应程度较大。
This paper establishes a new Keynesian DSGE model that includes the two economies and uses Bayesian method to estimate the parameters. Then it compares the impact of China’s monetary policy and other economic shocks on the economic variables with different financial openness and finds the following characteristics : 1 The model has robustness and is suitable for studying the economic fluctuations in China. 2) By variance decomposition, most of the shocks have the greatest impact on China’s economy when the financial system is moderately open. The impact of foreign inflation increases with the increase of openness , While China’s monetary policy has the opposite impact. (3) According to the impulse response analysis, we find that in the medium term, output has a greater impact on monetary policy shocks when the degree of openness is smaller, while there is almost no difference in policy paths between moderate and high degree of liberalization. The degree of change reaction is not significant; 4 Through the comparison of the impact of impact found that output and inflation are risk premium impact, the impact of foreign inflation and foreign interest rate shocks greater degree of reaction.