A Short-Term Traffic Flow Forecasting Method and Its Applications

来源 :Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University(Science) | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:diyapple
下载到本地 , 更方便阅读
声明 : 本文档内容版权归属内容提供方 , 如果您对本文有版权争议 , 可与客服联系进行内容授权或下架
论文部分内容阅读
Short-term forecast of urban traffic flow is very important to intelligent transportation. Although the conventional methods have some advantages, to some extent, in improving the traffic forecast’s precision, it is still hard to achieve high accuracy. In this paper, we propose a short-term traffic flow forecasting method, which is based on the hybrid particle swarm optimization-neural network(HPSO-NN) with error compensation mechanism.In HPSO-NN, the hybrid PSO algorithm is employed to train the structures and parameters of the feed-forward advanced neural network, while the error compensation mechanism is employed to improve the accuracy. HPSONN is used to forecast the vehicle velocity in Shanghai North-South Viaduct. Experimental results show that the HPSO-NN, compared with the auto-regressive and moving average(ARMA) model, can forecast traffic flow with a higher accuracy. What’s more, we have also found that HPSO-NN with error compensation mechanism has better performance than that of HPSO-NN alone. Short-term forecast of urban traffic flow is very important to intelligent transportation. Although the conventional methods have some advantages, to some extent, in improving the traffic forecast’s precision, it is still hard to achieve high accuracy. In this paper, we propose a short-term traffic flow forecasting method, which is based on the hybrid particle swarm optimization-neural network (HPSO-NN) with error compensation mechanism. In HPSO-NN, the hybrid PSO algorithm is employed to train the structures and parameters of the feed -forward advanced neural network, while the error compensation mechanism is employed to improve the accuracy. HPSONN is used to forecast the vehicle velocity in Shanghai North-South Viaduct. Experimental results show that the HPSO-NN, compared with the auto-regressive and moving average (ARMA) model, can forecast traffic flow with a higher accuracy. What’s more, we have also found that HPSO-NN with error compensation mechanism has better performance than tha t of HPSO-NN alone.
其他文献
国家加强生态文明建设的重要举措之一就是在之前山高林密之地实行退耕还林工程.自新时期以来贵州省黔西南州已实行多年的退耕还林工程并且成果颇丰,2010年底以来贵州省黔西南
期刊
挖掘机作为我国工程机械的主力机种,被广泛应用于各种各样的施工作业中.挖掘机产品的核心技术就是液压系统设计,由于挖掘机的工作条件恶劣,要求实现的动作复杂,于是它对液压
减振器是车辆悬架系统的重要部件,其性能对车辆的行驶平顺性、操纵稳定性及行驶安全性都有重要影响。可调阻尼减振器是近年来车辆悬架系统研究的重点新技术,也是影响主动和半主
氧电极包括两个重要的电极反应:氧还原反应(ORR)和氧析出反应(OER)。ORR和OER在新型清洁能源系统如金属空气电池、可再生燃料电池中扮演关键角色,但其相对低的催化活性影响了氧电极在实际中的高效使用。目前对氧电极催化性能最好的是贵金属催化剂,但是由于价格昂贵、资源匮乏限制了它们在商业中的广泛应用,因此开发具有高活性和稳定性好的非贵金属氧电极催化剂来替代贵金属催化剂显得尤为重要。针对以上问题,本
随着火箭发射密度的提高,对其发动机工作的可靠度要求越来越高,波纹管组件作为火箭发动机涡轮泵主阀的控制核心,其灵活性的好坏将直接影响着火箭发动机的工作的可靠度。由于
目的:采用能谱CT技术对肺癌癌周灌注进行定量研究,探讨其灌注变化情况及不同分类情况下的灌注差异。方法:经病理证实的81例肺癌患者均行能谱CT平扫和增强扫描。在动脉期碘基
本刊讯新冠肺炎疫情发生以来,国务院联防联控机制多次就相关情况召开新闻发布会.2月18日和2月27日,“菜篮子稳产保供情况”和“坚决取缔和严厉打击非法野生动物市场和贸易工
期刊
目的:探讨Ⅰ~Ⅲ期根治术后左半结肠癌(left-sided colon cancer,LCC)与右半结肠癌(right-sided colon cancer,RCC)患者预后的影响因素。方法 :回顾性分析2008年2月—2012年2
本文主要针对大孤山选矿厂过滤车间20吨抓斗起重机在实际运行过程中存在主梁挠曲变形大、振动比较严重的问题而提出的。首先选择不同工况,并对每种工况下特定点的应力和振动信号进行现场实测,通过分析找出主梁上特定测点中应力最大,变形最大的位置及所对应的工况,以便进一步分析。利用ANSYS有限元软件建立了合理的主梁有限元模型,并尽可能减小载荷、约束边界条件等与实际情况的差距,对加固前和初次加固后的主梁进行刚度