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笔者在对苹果产量预测的特点和现有的苹果产量预测方法的适用性分析的基础上,提出了基于经济——气候模型的研究结论,根据全球重大灾害性气候事件,建立世界苹果主产国苹果产量增减预报模型。研究全球12个产量超百万吨的苹果主产国气候背景与产量增减的关系,根据极端气象灾害引起产量变化的历史资料,结合当年苹果主产国气象灾害发生地域、影响范围及程度,运用数理统计方法,预估苹果主产国当年苹果产量的增减趋势。根据目前国内对全球重大灾害性天气气候事件的监测能力建立全球苹果主产国产量预测的思路是可行的,该研究思路对其他全球范围的作物产量预测具有积极的参考和借鉴意义。
Based on the analysis of the characteristics of apple yield forecasting and the applicability of the existing apple yield forecasting methods, the author puts forward the research conclusions based on the economic-climate model. According to the global catastrophic climate events, the author established the world’s main producing countries of apples Apple Yield Increase and Decrease Forecast Model. Based on the historical data of the change of output caused by extreme meteorological disasters and the occurrence area and extent of meteorological disasters in the main producing countries of apple, Use mathematical statistics to predict Apple’s main producing countries in the year when the increase or decrease of apple production trends. According to the current national ability to monitor the global catastrophic weather and climate events, it is feasible to establish a global production forecast of the major producing countries of apple. This research idea has positive reference and reference for other global crop yield forecasts.