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2003年全球铅市场呈供不应求局面。精铅供应的紧张使LME库存大幅下降,局部地区溢价高居不下。中国经济尤其是汽车工业强劲增长继续引领全球精铅消费增长,全球经济的好转、中国出口退税政策的调整,加上美元的持续贬值使铅价在下半年强劲反弹并走出大反转的走势,LME铅价连创新高。在全球经济恢复的大背景下,2004年全球精铅消费仍将保持增长,良好的基本面和技术面支持将使全球精铅市场继续保持牛市。预计全年LME三月期铅平均价将在700美元/吨左右。
The global lead market was in short supply in 2003. The tight supply of refined lead has led to a substantial drop in LME inventories and a high premium in some areas. China’s economy, especially the strong growth of automobile industry, continued to lead the world’s refined lead consumption growth. The global economy improved. China’s export tax rebate policy adjustment. Coupled with the continuous devaluation of the U.S. dollar, the lead price rebounded strongly in the second half of the year and came out of the trend of major reversal. LME Lead prices hit a new high. Against the background of global economic recovery, the world’s refined lead consumption will continue to grow in 2004, and good fundamentals and technical support will keep the global refined lead market bullish. Expected March LME March lead average price will be 700 US dollars / ton.