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本文按波动理论对地震作用下供水管线反应的计算方法进行了分析，探讨了地下管道变形传递系数的两种计算方法，即基于海城、唐山地震震害经验的计算公式和基于地基反力系数的计算公式。文中论证了采用考虑管土间相对位移的双线型模型的合理性。在基于可靠度理论的供水管线震害预测方法中，对地面位移和管道不同破坏状态指标的概率统计特征进行了分析，指出了地面位移反应的概率分布为极值Ⅰ型、管道不同破坏状态的指标为对数正态分布较为符合实际。
In this paper, the calculation method of the response of the water supply pipeline under earthquake is analyzed according to the wave theory, and two calculation methods for the deformation transfer coefficient of the underground pipeline are discussed, namely the calculation formula based on the earthquake damage experience of the Haicheng and Tangshan earthquakes and the reaction coefficient based on the foundation. The calculation formula. This paper demonstrates the rationality of using a bilinear model considering the relative displacement between pipe and soil. In the prediction method of water pipeline damage based on reliability theory, the probabilistic and statistical characteristics of ground displacement and different damage status indicators of the pipeline are analyzed. It is pointed out that the probability distribution of ground displacement response is an extreme value I, and the pipeline is in different damage states. The lognormal distribution of the indicator is more realistic.