认识不同量级洪水发生的可能性是洪水风险管理的重要因素判断不同量级洪水发生的可能性的最好方法是统计分析流量观测站的历次洪水记录。对于保存有长期洪水记录,而且集水区没有出现显著变化的地方,可以使用“洪水频率分析”统计方法,来确定未来不同量级洪水在某一特定地点发生的可能性。澳大利亚洪水记录的 Recognizing the possibility of flooding of different magnitudes is an important element of flood risk management The best way to determine the probability of floods of different magnitudes is to statistically analyze each flood record of the flow station. Where long-term flood records are kept and there are no significant changes in the catchment area, the “flood frequency analysis” statistical method may be used to determine the probability that different levels of floods will occur in a particular place in the future. Australian flood record