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能源的合理利用与消费一直是能源经济学关注的重要问题之一,现有研究对于经济发展方式转变对能源消费的影响重视不足,对能源消费的预测也鲜有政策背景与目标性约束。研究的主要目的就是在我国现有研究的基础上,将政策性的目标指向与能源消费量相结合,从而为能源消费量的预测与目标规划提出新的分析角度。基于我国经济发展目标,总结出经济结构调整的各项主要指标,利用层次分析法构建出经济结构调整指数,以反映经济发展方式的转变。利用回归分析法得出结论,经济结构调整每优化1个单位,能源消费结构优化约0.3个单位,经济结构的调整对能源消费结构的变动有较明显的引导作用;能源消费结构每优化1个单位,能源消费总量减少1.8%;而能源效率每增加1个单位,能源消费总量减少约4.0%;同时能源生产和人口增加也促使能源消费总量增长。可见,经济发展方式转变推动能源消费结构优化,进而引起能源消费总量的下降。建议国家应加快转变经济发展方式,为能源消费结构的调整创造条件;加快能源产业自身结构调整步伐,更好地适应于经济发展方式转变。
The rational use and consumption of energy has always been one of the most important issues in energy economics. The existing research lacks attention on the impact of changes in the mode of economic development on energy consumption, and there are few policy backgrounds and target constraints on the prediction of energy consumption. The main purpose of this study is to combine the policy-oriented goal orientation with energy consumption based on the existing researches in our country so as to put forward a new analysis angle for the forecast and target planning of energy consumption. Based on China’s economic development goals, the main indicators of economic restructuring are summarized, and the index of economic structural adjustment is constructed by using AHP to reflect the change of economic development mode. Using regression analysis concluded that each optimization of economic structure adjustment of a unit, the energy consumption structure optimization of about 0.3 units, the adjustment of economic structure on the changes in energy consumption structure has a more obvious role in guiding; each energy consumption structure optimization of a Units, the total energy consumption decreased by 1.8%; while energy efficiency increased by 1 unit, total energy consumption decreased by about 4.0%; while energy production and population increase also contributed to the total energy consumption growth. Can be seen that the transformation of economic development to promote energy consumption structure optimization, thereby causing the total energy consumption decline. It is suggested that the state should speed up the transformation of economic development mode and create conditions for the adjustment of energy consumption structure; speed up the pace of structural adjustment of energy industry itself and be better adapted to the transformation of economic development mode.