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研究了基于Copula函数的抗剪强度参数联合分布模型对岩土结构物系统可靠度的影响规律,揭示了抗剪强度参数间相关结构对岩土结构物系统可靠度影响的过程。介绍了不完备概率信息条件下基于Copula函数的抗剪强度参数联合分布模型构造方法,提出了Copula理论框架下岩土结构物系统失效概率计算的蒙特卡罗模拟方法,以典型岩土结构物如挡土墙和岩质边坡为例研究了Copula函数对系统可靠度的影响。结果表明:Copula函数为不完备概率信息条件下抗剪强度参数联合分布模型的构建提供了一种有效的工具。不完备概率信息条件下岩土结构物系统可靠度不唯一,不同Copula函数计算的系统失效概率差别非常大,这种差别在实际工程可靠度设计中应该引起重视。Copula函数对系统可靠度的影响分为两个机制不同的阶段,首先是参数间相关结构对系统中单一失效模式可靠度的影响,其次是每一个失效模式对系统可靠度的影响。
The influence of the joint shear strength parameter model based on the Copula function to the system reliability of the geotechnical structure is studied. The influence of the relative structure of the shear strength parameter on the system reliability of the geotechnical structure is revealed. The construction method of the joint distribution model of shear strength parameters based on the Copula function is introduced under the condition of incomplete probability information. The Monte Carlo simulation method of calculating the failure probability of the geotechnical structural system under the Copula theory framework is proposed. Taking the typical geotechnical structures Retaining walls and rock slopes are used as an example to study the effect of Copula function on system reliability. The results show that the Copula function provides an effective tool for constructing the joint distribution model of shear strength parameters under the incomplete probability information. The system reliability of geotechnical structures is not unique under the incomplete probability information. The differences of the system failure probabilities calculated by different Copula functions are very different. This difference should be paid more attention in the design of practical engineering reliability. The influence of Copula’s function on system reliability is divided into two phases: first, the influence of the inter-parameter structure on the reliability of the single failure mode in the system; secondly, the impact of each failure mode on the system reliability.