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应用数值方法模拟了气候持续以0.04℃/a速度变暖条件下,我国青藏高原多年冻土热状况可能发生的变化趋势,计算结果表明,在计算所假设条件下,当初始地面年平均温度为0.0,-0.5,-1.5,-2.5,-3.5和-4.5℃时,14m深度上的年平均地温分别为-0.11,-0.59,-1.52,-2.45,-3.21和-4.32℃,多年冻土厚度为16.8,29.0,54.1,79.7,112.1和131.0m时,经50a的环境持续升温后,14m深度上的年平均地温分别升高为0.0,0.0,-0.36,-1.23,-2.16和-3.07℃;初始年平均地面温度高于-1.112的多年冻土由衔接型变为不衔接型,低于-1.1℃时,多年冻土上限分别由初始的1.8,1.6,1.4,和1.2m增大为2.2,2.0,1.8,1.6m,且多年冻土厚度不发生大的变化。所以,如果未来气侯以文中的速度或低于该速度变暖,50a内我国青藏高原多年冻土分布将不会发生大的明显变化。
Numerical simulation is used to simulate the trend of permafrost temperature change in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under the condition of a constant temperature of 0.04 ℃ / a. The calculation results show that under the assumption of the calculation, when the initial annual average ground temperature is The annual average ground temperature at the depth of 14m was -0.11, -0.59, -1.52, -2.45, -3.21 and -4.32 ℃ respectively at 0.0, -0.5, -1.5, -2.5, -3.5 and -4.5 ℃. The permafrost When the thickness was 16.8,29.0,54.1,79.7,112.1 and 131.0m, the annual mean ground temperature at the depth of 14m increased to 0.0, 0.0, -0.36, -1.23, -2.16 and -3.07 ℃. The permafrost with the initial mean annual surface temperature of -1.112 changed from a cohesive type to a non-cohesive type. When it is lower than -1.1 ° C, the upper limit of permafrost increases from the initial values of 1.8, 1.6, 1.4 and 1.2 m 2.2, 2.0, 1.8, 1.6m, and the permafrost thickness does not change greatly. Therefore, the distribution of permafrost in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau within 50a will not change significantly if the future climate warms at or below the temperature in this paper.