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本项研究提出的全国用材林预测模型,其中包括对造林、皆伐、择伐、抚育伐、更新等经营措施效果的预估,是一个大范围平均状态的森林生长模型,我们称此模型为广林龄转移方程式。根据这一模型,编制了一个利用微机进行全国用材林资源预测的程序。根据全国历年来经营活动的平均水平,利用这一程序对全国用材林森林资源进行了初步预测,其中包括几种不同经营措施的预测结果。这种预测方法的基本思想可以推广到省、县(局)级森林资源的预测,但具体做法,例如分区,树种组划分,人工林的处理方式等,都必须做更深入的研究及相应的修改。
The national forestry forecasting model proposed in this study, which includes estimates of the effects of management measures such as afforestation, clear cutting, selective cutting, tending and reforestation, etc., is a large-scale average forest growth model. We call this model a broad Age transfer equation. According to this model, a program of using computer to predict the national timber resource is compiled. According to the average level of business activities throughout the country over the years, the use of this program to predict the national forest timber resources, including several different operating measures of the forecast results. The basic idea of this prediction method can be extended to the prediction of forest resources at the provincial and county (bureau) level. However, specific methods, such as zoning, tree species grouping and plantation management, must be further studied and the corresponding modify.