经济学界预测经济总量的方法,大多用的是总供给和总需求的模型。将GDP核算的各个要素分拆研究后加总。但对于危机的预测,总供给和总需求模型向来都无能为力。2009年金融危机发生后,英国女王曾问责经济学家为何没有预见到危机的发生。于是,有人从故纸堆里翻出已故经济学家明斯基的论文,论证现代经济危机的爆发,很大程度源于金融的内生不稳定性。人们的顺周期行为,又决定了金融发展的规律终究将是盛极必衰,否极泰来。换句话说,人们的信心对于经济周期影响很大,如果看好未来,就会投资和消 The methods used by economists to forecast economic aggregates mostly use models of aggregate supply and aggregate demand. The various elements of the GDP accounting study split after the study. But for the prediction of the crisis, the total supply and total demand models have always been powerless. After the financial crisis in 2009, the Queen of England had an account of economists why they did not anticipate the crisis. As a result, someone dismissed the paper by the late economist Minsky from the paper stack to argue that the outbreak of the modern economic crisis has largely come from the endogenous instability of finance. People’s pro-cyclical behavior, but also determines the law of financial development will eventually be very prosperous, very unlikely. In other words, people’s confidence has a great impact on the economic cycle, and if they are optimistic about the future, they will invest and eliminate