根据地震活动时空不均匀特征,本文讨论了目前在地震危险性概率分析方法中估计地震年平均发生率所存在的问题。提出了一种能反映地震活动时空不均匀性的估计地震年平均发生率的新方法。值得注意的是,该方法解决了如何估计新区(至今从未发生过M≥Mo地震)地震年平均发生率的问题。 According to the characteristics of spatiotemporal and spatial distribution of seismic activity, this paper discusses the existing problems of estimating the average annual incidence of earthquakes in the seismic hazard probability analysis method. A new method to estimate the average annual incidence of earthquakes reflecting the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of seismic activity is proposed. It is noteworthy that this method solves the problem of how to estimate the average annual incidence of earthquakes in the new area (M M Mo earthquakes have never occurred before).