优势互补,报业与新媒体并行不悖共同发展不少人认为,以网络为代表的新媒体的发展,将会颠覆传统媒体,加快报纸消亡的速度。我认为,“报纸消亡”的预言不符合世界媒体发展的历史走向,更不符合中国的国情。报纸在中国虽不可能长盛不衰,但也绝不会谁说消亡就消亡。报业与新媒体之间不是淘汰与被淘汰的关系,而是并行不悖、相互补充、共同发展的关系。对于今年乃至今后几年国内报业的发展前景,我倒是乐观地认为,自2006年下半年起,报业发展将会开始好转。首先,这与中国经济的发展走势相关。近年来的中国经济规律呈现“马鞍形”走向,每5年一个小周期——1987年是一个高峰、1993年是一个高峰、1998年是一个高峰、2003年又是一个高峰。以此 With complementary advantages, the newspaper industry runs in unison with new media and common development Many people believe that the development of new media represented by the Internet will overturn the traditional media and speed up the demise of newspapers. In my opinion, the prophecy of “the disappearing newspaper” does not accord with the historical trend of media development in the world and is even more inconsistent with China’s national conditions. Although it is impossible for a newspaper to flourish in China, it will never die of who dies. The relationship between newspaper industry and new media is not eliminated and eliminated. Rather, it is a relationship that goes hand in hand, complements and develops together. For the development prospect of the domestic newspaper industry this year and in the coming years, I’d be optimistic that since the second half of 2006, the development of the newspaper industry will start to turn better. First of all, this is related to the development of China’s economy. In recent years, the Chinese economic law has shown a “saddle-shaped” trend, with a small cycle every five years - a peak in 1987, a peak in 1993, a peak in 1998 and a peak in 2003. With this