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基于规模分化的视角,以花生为例,利用2011-2014年农户微观调研的面板数据,采用面板回归模型和综合指数分析模型,分析价格与生产决策及收益的关系,探讨花生价格对农户生产决策调整以及农户种植收益的影响。结果表明,花生价格与农户经营规模并不存在明显关系,说明花生价格是由市场决定的,并非由农户内生决定。花生价格对农户生产决策的影响与农户经营规模有关,并表现为倒“U”型关系,价格变化对小、中、大规模农户种植面积的影响程度分别为0.257、0.348和0.121。花生价格波动的价格效应对农户种植收益变动的贡献率也与农户经营规模有关,价格波动对中等规模农户种植收益变动的贡献率为64.63%,低于小规模和大规模农户的73.12%和78.27%。因此,要积极稳妥地推进适度规模经营,并充分考虑不同经营规模的差异,同时还要加强支持政策,发展农业保险。
Based on the perspective of scale differentiation, taking peanut as an example, this paper analyzes the relationship between price and production decision-making and returns by using panel data from 2011-2014 micro-study, panel regression model and comprehensive index analysis model, and discusses peanut price to farmers’ production decision-making Adjustment and the impact of farmer planting income. The results show that there is no obvious relationship between the peanut price and the peasant households’ operating scale. It shows that peanut price is determined by the market and not determined by the farmer endogenously. The impact of peanut price on peasant households’ production decision-making is related to the peasant household’s operating scale and shows the relationship of “U” type. The impact of price changes on the planting area of small, medium-sized and large-scale peasant households is 0.257, 0.348 and 0.121 respectively. The contribution rate of the price effect of peanut price fluctuation to the change of farming income is also related to the scale of peasant household operation. The contribution rate of price fluctuation to the growth of middle-scale peasant household planting is 64.63%, lower than the 73.12% and 78.27 of small-scale and large-scale peasant households %. Therefore, we should actively and steadily promote moderate-scale management and give full consideration to the differences in the scale of different operations. We also need to step up supportive policies and develop agricultural insurance.