运用自上而下碳计量模型核算了中国水泥工业2002~2012年的碳排放量情况,并运用STIRAPT扩展模型分析了其增长的影响因素,得到以下结论:(1)我国水泥行业碳排放量与碳排放强度轨迹背向而行,碳排放总量直线上升,而排放强度逐年下降;(2)对我国水泥工业碳排放增长起拉动作用的因素有4个,按单位拉动效应大小排序,从大到小依次为产业结构、人口规模、城市化率、人均GDP,拉动弹性系数分别为0.2133、0.1892、0.1877、0.1771;(3)对我国水泥工业碳排放增长起减排作用的因素有3个,按单位减排效应大小排序,从大到小依次为能源消费结构、水泥消费结构、技术进步率,减排弹性系数分别为0.1550、0.1434、0.1278;(4)未来水泥工业碳排放的拉动主要依靠人均GDP的增长和城市化率的提高,未来水泥工业碳排放的减少主要依靠能源消费结构优化和技术进步。 Using top-down carbon measurement model to calculate the carbon emissions of China’s cement industry from 2002 to 2012, and using STIRAPT expansion model to analyze the impact of its growth factors, the following conclusions: (1) China’s cement industry emissions and (2) There are four factors which impel the growth of China’s cement industry carbon emissions, according to the size of the unit to promote the effect of size, from the large (3) There are three factors that play an important role in reducing carbon emission in cement industry in our country. The three factors are: industrial structure, population size, urbanization rate, GDP per capita and elasticity coefficient of pulling up to 0.2133, 0.1892, 0.1877 and 0.1771 respectively. According to the size of emission reduction effect, the order of energy consumption structure, cement consumption structure, technological progress rate and emission reduction coefficient are 0.1550, 0.1434 and 0.1278 respectively. (4) The future of cement industry’s carbon emissions depends mainly on Per capita GDP growth and urbanization rate increase, the future reduction of carbon emissions in the cement industry mainly depends on the energy consumption structure optimization and technological progress.