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BROADLY speaking， for the past four years we have been talking about how momentum loss in the Chinese economy is inevitable， and will continue. Put plainly， the near-term headwinds are just too big. Industrial performance and fixed asset investment are still too highly correlated to policy and credit. The corporate sector is deeply indebted， and the burden of fiscal expenditure remains tied to local governments that also need to de-leverage. Exports appear to be in for another challenging year - and the Chinese currency’s potential inclusion in the International Monetary Fund’s special drawing rights in November 2015 means any devaluation is off the table from a policy point of view. Meanwhile， consumption is too small a share of the economy to drive headline growth and faces its own difficulties. Herein lies the reality of shifting the economy away from its investment-led model： the transformation is healthy and necessary， but how it plays out will be less smooth than we are accustomed to.
The manner in which China connects to the rest of the world is also undergoing its own evolution. The new phase of development means that many Chinese corporates that have built up enormous capacities and competitiveness in recent decades - particularly those connected to the old growth model on the Chinese mainland， like construction companies， real estate developers， engineering firms， and so on - will have to externalize. Also， some emerging Chinese corporates will be looking to find opportunities abroad. Many of them are armed with low-cost structures， appealing products， and， most importantly， very ambitious leaders.
In recent years， China has watched with great interest as better external ties have been complemented by internal changes and macroeconomic management in Africa. Simultaneously， African governments have built up institutional credibility， diversified economies， and invested in physical and social infrastructure. The rewards are clear： African growth is more robust， resilient and inclusive， resulting in the development of substantial domestic markets.
Therefore， in June， when seven heads of state and foreign ministers from 26 Af- rican countries stated in Egypt that they are keen to fast-track the continent’s efforts toward attaining a fully-fledged single common market for Africa， officials， corporates and others in China took notice. The envisioned bloc （connecting the East African Community， Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa， and Southern African Development Community） will envelop 527 million people and a combined GDP of $624 billion. China’s commercial ties with Africa have already surged over the past decade. China became Africa’s largest source of goods in 2008 and then， in 2011， overtook the United States as the most important export destination. China’s total trade with Africa has more than doubled over the past five years， rising from $90.93 billion in 2009 to $222.14 billion in 2014. While bi-directional trade growth over the past two years is significantly slower than over the preceding decade， the sharper-than-anticipated deceleration in trade growth is primarily a consequence of the softening in global commodity prices. As a result， China’s imports from Africa， which remain largely natural resources， have flatlined over the past three years.
In recent years， China’s policy banks have provided at least $50 billion in concessional lending to Africa and the Chinese Government will commit more at the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation in South Africa later this year. Much of this funding has gone into building Africa’s ports， roads， railways and so on. Importantly， much of this secures export markets for China’s higher value-added products at a time when unit labor costs are rising in China. More will follow： Africa’s population is growing rapidly， the people are becoming wealthier， and Africa is urbanizing rapidly. Of course this will require large investments in infrastructure and utilities - at a time when Chinese firms are eager to explore new avenues.
A far less well appreciated fact is that Africa’s markets are mattering more to China every year. China’s total sales to Africa have more than doubled since 2009， from $47 billion in 2009 to $106 billion in 2014.
So far， swelling consumer demand in Africa is reflected in the growth of total imports. But this is changing. Just like China brought Africa into global trade flows， it has also done the same in terms of investment. First， it was from the state-owned enterprises who were encouraged to “go out，” but now nearly half of China’s total outbound foreign direct investment flows into Africa are from smaller privatesector players. China’s sales to Africa have also been propagated by the inflow of Chinese individuals. Many are pursuing their own enterprises in wholesale and retail trade， restaurants， hotels and manufacturing. Looking ahead， it is a logical progression that outbound investment will follow Chinese sales.
In his speech at the African Union Conference Center in Addis Ababa in May， Premier Li Keqiang stated China wants China-Africa trade and China’s direct investment in Africa to reach $400 billion and $100 billion respectively. No specific time frame was provided， but usually， China’s targets for Africa have three-year cycles. We believe these targets will be met before the envisioned market is established. This means Chinese firms are even better positioned to take advantage when Africa’s common market manifests.
The manner in which China connects to the rest of the world is also undergoing its own evolution. The new phase of development means that many Chinese corporates that have built up enormous capacities and competitiveness in recent decades - particularly those connected to the old growth model on the Chinese mainland， like construction companies， real estate developers， engineering firms， and so on - will have to externalize. Also， some emerging Chinese corporates will be looking to find opportunities abroad. Many of them are armed with low-cost structures， appealing products， and， most importantly， very ambitious leaders.
In recent years， China has watched with great interest as better external ties have been complemented by internal changes and macroeconomic management in Africa. Simultaneously， African governments have built up institutional credibility， diversified economies， and invested in physical and social infrastructure. The rewards are clear： African growth is more robust， resilient and inclusive， resulting in the development of substantial domestic markets.
Therefore， in June， when seven heads of state and foreign ministers from 26 Af- rican countries stated in Egypt that they are keen to fast-track the continent’s efforts toward attaining a fully-fledged single common market for Africa， officials， corporates and others in China took notice. The envisioned bloc （connecting the East African Community， Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa， and Southern African Development Community） will envelop 527 million people and a combined GDP of $624 billion. China’s commercial ties with Africa have already surged over the past decade. China became Africa’s largest source of goods in 2008 and then， in 2011， overtook the United States as the most important export destination. China’s total trade with Africa has more than doubled over the past five years， rising from $90.93 billion in 2009 to $222.14 billion in 2014. While bi-directional trade growth over the past two years is significantly slower than over the preceding decade， the sharper-than-anticipated deceleration in trade growth is primarily a consequence of the softening in global commodity prices. As a result， China’s imports from Africa， which remain largely natural resources， have flatlined over the past three years.
In recent years， China’s policy banks have provided at least $50 billion in concessional lending to Africa and the Chinese Government will commit more at the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation in South Africa later this year. Much of this funding has gone into building Africa’s ports， roads， railways and so on. Importantly， much of this secures export markets for China’s higher value-added products at a time when unit labor costs are rising in China. More will follow： Africa’s population is growing rapidly， the people are becoming wealthier， and Africa is urbanizing rapidly. Of course this will require large investments in infrastructure and utilities - at a time when Chinese firms are eager to explore new avenues.
A far less well appreciated fact is that Africa’s markets are mattering more to China every year. China’s total sales to Africa have more than doubled since 2009， from $47 billion in 2009 to $106 billion in 2014.
So far， swelling consumer demand in Africa is reflected in the growth of total imports. But this is changing. Just like China brought Africa into global trade flows， it has also done the same in terms of investment. First， it was from the state-owned enterprises who were encouraged to “go out，” but now nearly half of China’s total outbound foreign direct investment flows into Africa are from smaller privatesector players. China’s sales to Africa have also been propagated by the inflow of Chinese individuals. Many are pursuing their own enterprises in wholesale and retail trade， restaurants， hotels and manufacturing. Looking ahead， it is a logical progression that outbound investment will follow Chinese sales.
In his speech at the African Union Conference Center in Addis Ababa in May， Premier Li Keqiang stated China wants China-Africa trade and China’s direct investment in Africa to reach $400 billion and $100 billion respectively. No specific time frame was provided， but usually， China’s targets for Africa have three-year cycles. We believe these targets will be met before the envisioned market is established. This means Chinese firms are even better positioned to take advantage when Africa’s common market manifests.