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本文从全球经济失衡到金融危机产生再到失衡调整的内在逻辑进行了分析。我们认为,全球经济失衡可持续的基础在于,美国金融体系的高度发达和实体经济中高收益行业的存在。而当这些条件不具备时,经济失衡的调整将不可避免。从性质上看,本次美国金融危机是居民过度消费以及外部经济失衡纠偏调整的表现形式。同时,金融危机的发生并没有改变当前的国际金融格局,在缺乏制度和技术创新的情况下,全球经济的增长必将进入一个高波动低水平的增长阶段,此时任何指标反映的经济复苏都缺少创新的基础。
This article analyzes the internal logic of the global economic imbalance, the financial crisis and then the imbalance adjustment. In our opinion, the basis for the sustainable global imbalances lies in the highly developed U.S. financial system and the existence of high-yielding industries in the real economy. When these conditions are not available, the adjustment of economic imbalances will be inevitable. From the nature of view, this financial crisis in the United States is a manifestation of the overconsumption of residents and the correction of the deviation of external economic imbalances. At the same time, the financial crisis has not changed the current international financial structure. In the absence of systems and technological innovations, the growth of the global economy is bound to enter a phase of high volatility and low growth. At this time, any indicator of economic recovery Lack of innovation foundation.