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本文认为现金流折现法是一种 相对静态的价值评估方法,只有同时考虑资产 的收益现值及其内嵌的实物期权价值才能比较 准确评估未来不确定性特征比较明显的资产价 值。本文探讨了实物期权方法在自然资源、房地 产、研发项目及无形资产、柔性制造设备等资产 的价值评估中的运用,最后应用二叉树模型对 矿山开采权的评估案例进行了分析。 现金流折现法(以下简称DCF法)是一种传 统的价值评估方法,该方法认为资产或公司的 价值等于其预期现金流按照一定折现率贴现后 的现值。从理论上讲,如果能准确预测资产或公 司未来现金流,并对其相应的风险有个合理评 估,那么采用该方法就能较准确评估资产或公 司的内在价值。从20世纪60年代开始,DCF法 在欧美国家逐渐得到认同并被广泛使用。
In this paper, the discounted cash flow method is a relatively static method of value assessment. Only when the present value of the return on assets and the value of the real option embedded in it can be accurately evaluated can the asset value with obvious uncertainty character be analyzed in the future. This paper discusses the application of real option method in the valuation of natural resources, real estate, R & D projects, assets such as intangible assets and flexible manufacturing equipment. Finally, the binary tree model is used to analyze the assessment of mining rights. The DCF method is a traditional valuation method that considers the value of an asset or company equal to the present value of its expected cash flow discounted at a discount rate. Theoretically, this method can accurately assess the intrinsic value of an asset or company if it accurately predicts the future cash flow of the asset or company and provides a reasonable assessment of its corresponding risk. Since the 1960s, the DCF has gradually been accepted and widely used in Europe and the United States.