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中国证券市场的泡沫问题一直是各界关注的一个焦点。本文运用剩余价值模型,针对1994~2007年的A股市场,分别从市场整体和行业局部的两个视角对进行了泡沫问题的实证研究,得出了我国证券市场长期以来存在泡沫的结论。从市场角度而言,我国证券市场的内在价值保持相对稳定,而股票价格波动频繁,市场中的泡沫成分较多;从行业角度而言,不同的行业,泡沫成分明显不同。综合两者的共同点,市场泡沫波动频繁时期,行业泡沫亦增多,反之,亦然。
The bubble in China’s securities market has always been a focus of attention from all walks of life. In this paper, we use the residual value model to research the A-share market in 1994-2007 from the two perspectives of the market as a whole and the industry as a whole, and conclude that the stock market in our country has a long history of bubbles. From a market perspective, the intrinsic value of China’s securities market remains relatively stable while the stock price fluctuates frequently with more foam components in the market. From an industry perspective, different industries have significantly different foam components. To sum up the common ground between the two, the bubble in the market fluctuates frequently and the industry bubble also increases. On the contrary, it is also true.