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尖岗水库位于郑州市地势较高的西南部,贾鲁河干流的上游,尖岗村西,控制流域面113km~2,被称为“郑州头上的一盆水”。由于尖岗水库地理位置特殊,流域面积较小,地面和河道坡降大,具有汇流时间短、来势猛的特点,所以对水库所控制流域进行水文预报是十分重要的。本文通过运用统计学方法,并结合气象学、水文学和中长期预报及计算机的相关知识,对尖岗水库流域的多年降雨量用多元回归法制作出预报模型,并对模型进行了精度的检验和评定,对预报值进行误差分析得出一些结论。
Jigang Reservoir is located in the southeastern part of Zhengzhou with a high elevation. The upper reaches of Jialu River and the west of Jiangang Village have a control basin area of 113 km ~ 2, which is called “a pot of water in Zhengzhou Head”. Because of the special geographical position of Jijigang Reservoir, the smaller drainage area and the larger slope of ground and river, it has the characteristics of short confluence time and rapid fierceness. Therefore, it is very important to carry out hydrological forecast for the controlled watershed. By using statistical methods, combined with meteorology, hydrology and medium- and long-term prediction and computer-related knowledge, this paper makes a multi-regression model for multi-year rainfall in the watersheds of the Jiangyang Reservoir and tests the accuracy of the model Assessment, error analysis of the forecast value to draw some conclusions.