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本文利用我国月度数据,确定我国物价景气的指标体系,构建出扩散指数,针对扩散指数的变化特征,探讨我国物价景气的波动态势。研究结果表明,一致扩散指数能反映出我国物价的实际运行状况,先行扩散指数具有较好的预警性质。随后,根据扩散指数与基准日期的超前滞后关系,对我国物价景气出现的新特征和变化趋势作进一步分析和展望。
In this paper, the use of monthly data in China to determine the index system of China’s price boom, build a diffusion index, in view of the changing characteristics of the diffusion index to explore the volatility of China’s price boom. The results show that the consistent diffusion index can reflect the actual operation of the price of our country, and the advanced diffusion index has a good early warning nature. Then, based on the relationship between the diffusion index and the lead date of the benchmark date, the new characteristics and trends of the emergence of China’s price boom are further analyzed and forecast.