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基于变点原理,运用最大似然比和西沃兹信息标准方法,对广东省4种径流量序列进行均值变点和方差变点的识别,研究存在变点的河川径流量序列、时间位置、空间分布及变点后的特征值变化状况,以揭示广东省河川径流量时空变异特点。结果发现:广东省河川年径流量和汛期径流量序列的一致性较好,而枯期径流量和最小月径流量序列的特征值变点具有普遍性,年均值明显增加,年际离散程度增大,时间位置主要为1972—1973年和1981年两个时间段。枯期径流量序列均值变点的典型地区主要为东江流域,方差变点的典型地区主要为北江流域、韩江流域、粤西地区和珠江三角洲;最小月径流序列主要为均值变点,典型地区有东江流域、韩江流域;而北江入珠江三角洲的河川径流量变异尤其典型,4种径流序列均存在均值变点和方差变点。
Based on the principle of variable point, the method of maximum likelihood ratio and Seiwoz information standard method were used to identify the mean change point and variance change point of four kinds of runoff series in Guangdong Province. The change of runoff series, time position, Spatial distribution and change of eigenvalues after the change of spot, so as to reveal the characteristics of spatio-temporal variation of runoff in Guangdong Province. The results show that there is a good consistency between annual runoff and flood season runoff series in Guangdong Province, while eigenvalue change points of the dry season runoff and minimum monthly runoff series are universal, the annual average is significantly increased, and the interannual dispersion is increased Large, time position mainly 1972-1973 and 1981 two time periods. The typical areas of mean change of dry runoff series are mainly Dongjiang watershed. The typical areas of variance change point are mainly Beijiang River valley, Hanjiang River valley, western Guangdong and Pearl River Delta. The minimum monthly runoff series are mainly mean change points. Typical areas There are the Dongjiang River Basin and the Hanjiang River Basin. The variation of river runoff in the Beijiang River into the Pearl River Delta is particularly typical. There are mean change points and variance change points for the four runoff sequences.