“世易时移,变法宜矣,譬之若良药,病万变,药亦万变”。国际金融危机已过一旬,需求端的政策瓶颈锁定了短期反弹的上限,全球化退潮和供给端发力的叠加左右着复苏势头的延续。经济周期的躁动无法阻止均衡的嬗变,长期疲软后的边际改善终需要结构性调整加以巩固。展望下半年,再通胀已经终结,全球经济转折正在发生,新均衡的坐标有赖于决策者的选择和集体行动的理性。受金融条件 “World Yi time shift, change the law should carry on, such as the good medicine, the ever-changing, drug also changeable.” After the international financial crisis has lasted for ten days, the policy bottleneck on the demand side has locked the upper limit of a short-term rebound. The combination of the ebb and end of supply on the global economy is a continuation of the recovery trend. The agitation of the economic cycle can not stop the evolution of equilibrium. The long-term weakening of the marginal improvement will eventually require structural adjustment to be consolidated. Looking into the second half of the year, re-inflation has come to an end and a turning point in the global economy is happening. The new equilibrium coordinates depend on the choices made by policy makers and the rationality of collective action. Subject to financial conditions