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利用1959—2008年云南省125个气象站的逐日资料,采用模糊信息分配方法和三分段法进行了雨、雾淞(冰冻)天气发生的气象条件研究;基于模糊信息分配和超越极限概率法进行了云南冰冻灾害气候风险评估和风险区划研究。结果表明:模糊信息分配方法用于概率密度估计,可减少分析、评估误差,且不需要假定数列总体概率分布函数,就能得出较为接近实际概率密度分布的分析和评估结果;雨、雾淞(冰冻)出现当日最低气温≤1℃的气候概率达99.8%,最低气温≤1℃是出现雨、雾淞(冰冻)天气的阈值;当温度条件达到时,微量以上降水、日照时数≤1 h、日平均相对湿度大于80%是出现雨、雾淞(冰冻)的阈值。云南省大部分地区(96个站,占全省总站数的77%)没有出现冰冻灾害的风险,无风险的区域分布在云南省的中、西部和南部地区;冰冻灾害风险较大的是滇东北和滇东地区,其中有12个站累积概率值在50%～100%之间,有年年出现或2年1遇的气候风险,风险较大,特别是镇雄、鲁甸2个县的概率值为100%,有年年出现冰冻灾害的气候风险,风险很大。
Based on the daily data of 125 meteorological stations in Yunnan Province from 1959 to 2008, the meteorological conditions of rain and fog (freezing) weather were studied by using the fuzzy information distribution method and the three-segment method. Based on the fuzzy information distribution and the over-limit probability method Carried out the Yunnan frozen disaster climate risk assessment and risk zoning study. The results show that the fuzzy information assignment method can be used to estimate the probability density, which can reduce the analysis and evaluation error. The results of the analysis and evaluation are more approximate to the actual probability density distribution without assuming the overall probability distribution function. (Freezing) occurs on the day the minimum temperature ≤ 1 ℃ climate probability of 99.8%, minimum temperature ≤ 1 ℃ is the rain, fog (freezing) weather threshold; when the temperature reaches the conditions above the micro-precipitation, sunshine hours ≤ 1 h, the average daily relative humidity greater than 80% is the threshold of rain, fog (freezing). There is no risk of freezing disaster in most parts of Yunnan Province (96 stations, accounting for 77% of the total number of stations in the province), and the risk-free areas are located in the central, western and southern areas of Yunnan Province. Northeast and East Yunnan, of which 12 stations have a cumulative probability of between 50% and 100%, with annual or annual occurrence of 1 year climate risk, with a greater risk, especially in Zhenxiong, Ludian 2 counties The probability is 100%, there is a risk of climate change, the risk of ice disaster.