一、地震灾害预测手段的现状制定抗震防灾计划时,首先必须预测未来地震造成的灾害到底有多大。地震引起的灾害可分成以下几类:①人身伤亡;②物质破坏;③机能损坏;④经济损失;⑤社会受害。其中预测人身的伤亡是相当困难的。它除受地震震级和物质破坏的影响外,还受个人的避难能力、避难的组织引导、医疗体制的影响。而且,社会的受害情况也因难以评定,尚未见到过系统的研究。下面仅介绍一下美国国内有关 First, the status quo of means of prediction of earthquake disaster When making earthquake-resistant and disaster prevention plan, we must first predict how much the disaster caused by future earthquakes in the end. Earthquake-induced disasters can be divided into the following categories: ① personal injury and death; ② material damage; ③ performance damage; ④ economic losses; ⑤ social victimization. Among them, it is quite difficult to predict the casualties of a person. In addition to being affected by the earthquake magnitude and material destruction, it is also affected by the individual’s ability to take refuge, the organization’s guidance of asylum and the medical system. Moreover, social victimization has not been systematically studied due to the difficulty of assessment. Here only introduce the United States related